Kretchner, Mabelle and Mostovoy, Noga and Halperin, Eran (2026) Conflict, emotions, and policy preferences: How intergroup feelings shape support for peace and punishment across 12 active and post-conflict societies. Working Paper. -. (Unpublished)
|
Text (Working paper)
working_paper_7_B_20Oct2026.pdf - Other Available under license Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial. Download (4MB) | Preview |
Abstract
How do emotions shape public support for conflict-related policies, and when do they matter most? This working paper examines six intergroup emotions—hope, fear, anger, guilt, hate, and empathy—in predicting policy support for peacebuilding, security, reparation, exclusion, and aggression across 12 active and post-conflict societies. The analysis uses survey data from 14,440 respondents in the Emotions and Norms in Conflicts project and multilevel regression models. Fear is the clearest predictor of support for security, and hate for exclusion and aggression. On the conciliatory side the picture is less specific: hope is the strongest predictor not only of compromise and future-oriented policies but also of reconciliation, humanitarian aid and equality, while empathy’s largest effect falls on reparation. The results also point to two broader emotional orientations. Hope, guilt, and empathy cluster on the conciliatory side, while hate, anger, and fear cluster on the hostile side. Yet, these clusters are not rigid: emotional effects spill across policy categories, especially for hate, hope, and empathy. Context matters, too. Conflict stage is the strongest moderator: fear and guilt are more strongly associated with policy preferences in post-conflict settings, while hope matters more in active conflicts. Intergroup norms and perceived outgroup emotions usually weaken the effect of personal emotions, suggesting that an individual’s own feelings are filtered through social expectations and group context. Overall, the paper shows that emotions are not just responses to conflict. They are political forces that shape support for peace, justice, security, and exclusion, and their influence changes with the conflict’s own life cycle.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
|---|---|
| Title in English: | Conflict, emotions, and policy preferences: How intergroup feelings shape support for peace and punishment across 12 active and post-conflict societies |
| Keywords in English: | Intergroup Emotions Theory, Emotion-Policy, Specificity, Conflict-Related Policy Preferences, Emotional, Norm, Conflict Stage, Cross-National Survey |
| Subjects: | J Political Science > JA Political science (General) |
| Divisions: | Institute for Political Science |
| Research funder: | European Union (EU), MORES project, grant no. 101132601 |
| Depositing User: | Enikő Meiszterics |
| Date Deposited: | 22 Oct 2026 07:47 |
| Last Modified: | 22 Oct 2026 07:47 |
| Related papers or data collections: |
Boda, Zsolt
(2025)
Moral Emotions in Politics - How they unite, how they divide?
[Data Collection]
Horst, Dorothea and Scherer, Thomas J. J. (2024) Visionen in der Krise: Deutsche Spitzenkandida innen zur Europawahl 2024 Visions in Crisis: German Lead Candidates for the European Elections 2024. Mediaesthetics – Journal of Poetics of Audiovisual Images, (5). ISSN 2567-9309 Boda, Zsolt and Ring, Orsolya and Szabó, Gabriella (2024) What kinds of emotions are mobilised by different policy fields? A text mining analysis of parliamentary speeches. Working Paper. MORES Working Paper Series, 1. (Unpublished) Metz, Rudolf and Plesz, Bendegúz (2025) The Irresistible Allure of Charismatic Leaders? Populism, Social Identity, and Polarisation. Politics and Governance, 2025 (13). ISSN 2183-2463 Hadarics, Márton and Krekó, Péter (2024) Nothing to see here, move along! Illiberal contexts as catalyzers of authoritarian misperception of democratic quality. Political Psychology. Kamkhaji, Jonathan and Radaelli, Claudio M (2025) Behaviour in Public Administration: In Search of Foundational Insights. In: The Humanities and Public Administration; An Introduction. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, pp. 79-93. Metz, Rudolf (2025) (Don't) fear the bad leader: three influential myths about bad leadership. Frontiers in Political Science, 2025 (7). ISSN 2673-3145 Scherer, Thomas and Beichelt, Timm and Illger, Daniel (2025) Inventing an alternative: Populist imaginations of political leaders in audiovisual culture. Working Paper. MORES Working Paper Series, 2. (Unpublished) Patkós, Veronika and Plesz, Bendegúz (2025) Does political polarisation undermine democratic accountability? Evidence from 28 European democracies. West European Politics. pp. 1-33. Krekó, Péter (2025) The Rise of the Authoritarian Populist Right: The Illiberal Defenders of Freedom? Brown Journal of World Affairs, XXXI (II). Sík, Endre and Krekó, Péter (2025) Hungary as an Ideological Informational Autocracy (IA) and the Moral Panic Button (MPB) as its Basic Institution. Central and Eastern European Migration Review. pp. 1-17. Kamkhaji, Jonathan and Radaelli, Claudio M (2025) Patterns of Emotionalisation in Policy Narratives. Working Paper. MORES Working Paper Series, 3. (Unpublished) Metz, Rudolf and Kövesdi, Veronika (2026) Teflon leadership: crossing moral boundaries with impunity. Frontiers in Political Science, 2025 (7). ISSN 2673-3145 Hadarics, Márton and Kende, Anna (2025) Social Equality Is Rather Threatening Than Normative to Authoritarians. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 19 (4). Hadarics, Márton (2025) Democratic Backsliding Based on Illusions: Authoritarians' Biased Perception of Media Freedom Contributes to Their Political Support. International Journal of Psychology, 60 (6). MORES – Moral Emotions in Politics, (2026) MORES Annual Report: 2025. Project Report. ELTE Centre for Social Sciences. Benedek, István (2026) Polarizing transition? Opposition strategies and the rise of Péter Magyar and the respect and freedom party (TISZA) in Hungary. Comparative European Politics, 24 (1). Szabó, Gabriella and Ring, Orsolya and Beichelt, Timm and Lipiński, Artur (2026) Pride and Hubris in European Parliament Campaigns. The cases of Germany, Hungary, and Poland in 2019 and 2024. Working Paper. MORES Working Paper Series, 4. (Unpublished) Orosz, Gábor and Salamon, János and Enyedi, Zsolt and Whitefield, Stephen and Krekó, Péter (2026) MORES - Moral Emotions in Politics: Cracks in the System: A Democratic Inoculation Intervention that Enhances Recognition of Authoritarian Weaknesses. [Data Collection] Szabó, Gabriella and Farkas, Eszter and Ring, Orsolya and Beichelt, Timm (2026) Rage to reach: Anger as a political resource for newcomer parties – Facebook communication of German and Hungarian parties and politicians during the 2019 and 2024 European parliamentary campaigns. Communications. Orosz, Gábor and Salamon, János and Enyedi, Zsolt and Whitefield, Stephen and Krekó, Péter (2026) Cracks in the System. A democratic inoculation intervention that enhances recognition of authoritarian weaknesses. Working Paper. MORES Working Paper Series, 5. (Unpublished) Szabó, Gabriella and Ring, Orsolya and Lipiński, Artur and Beichelt, Timm (2026) Protecting collective worth: pride in European parliament campaigns in Germany, Hungary, and Poland. Frontiers in Political Science, 2026 (8). ISSN 2673-3145 Triaccca, Nicoló and Kamkhaji, Jonathan C. and Lironi, Elisa (2026) How European Union Policies Feel. Insights from a crowdsourcing study. Working Paper. MORES Working Paper Series, 6. (Unpublished) Mitró, Dóra (2026) "The 'Fight Club" and the Hidden Truth: Political Video Narratives and the Expression of Moral Emotions in the Shadow of the Pandemic. Politikatudományi Szemle, XXXV (2026/2). Szabó, Gabriella and Ring, Orsolya and Patkós, Veronika and Boda, Zsolt (2026) Political emotionalization in large text corpora: detecting affective cues with MORESPulse and its scientific uses. JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & POLITICS. Szabó, Gabriella and Benedek, István (2026) Cringe Communication in Hungarian Politics Insult Humor as a Campaign Tool in 2024. Central European Journal of Communication, 2(43) (19). pp. 246-270. |
| URI: | https://openarchive.tk.mta.hu/id/eprint/681 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
